Far Eastern Economic Review

Reference: Vol. 74, No. 43, 23 Oct 1971, 3

EDITORIAL

NO WAY OUT BUT WAR

FOUR-FIFTHS of Pakistan's army is now reportedly massed along the borders with India, which is moving its own troops up into "defensive" positions. Such are the passions aroused by the Bengal crisis that, should war break out, no gentleman's agreement could exempt the crowded cities from air raids. The destruction of life and property, the diversion of resources into already swollen military budgets and the economic setbacks to both countries would be on a cruelly large scale. The viciousness with which New Delhi and Islamabad are exchanging threats possibly provides some relief, for such loud barking would normally indicate a disinclination to bite. On strictly military and economic grounds, neither country can afford to launch an attack, for neither could survive the loss of blood. But politically both countries may be reaching a point where war could appear the best way out of the dilemma.

President Yahya Khan and his generals seem to feel that they have been driven into a corner. What has possibly been the largest exodus of refugees in history has witnessed to the ruthlessness with which East Pakistan was crushed. And, despite the horrors perpetrated by the troops, the guerillas of Bangla Desh are mounting a counter-offensive. The end of the rains has seen evidently well-trained units harassing the Pakistani army, disrupting communications and even sinking ships. The generals cannot contemplate an indefinite military occupation of Bangla Desh.

Even at home in West Pakistan, the military government is at bay. The politicians, apparently ready to exploit any tragedy for their own ends, are demanding a return to civilian rule. Students and workers show increasing signs of unrest, and demands for provincial autonomy are growing. A virtually complete boycott by the consortium of donor countries would have meant bankruptcy had it not been for the unpublicised -- and unpredictable -- generosity of a handful of special allies (reportedly including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Jordan). Disaffection is growing among younger army officers. It would be perfectly logical for the military government to meet -- or to remove -- such threats by creating a war psychosis. "Crush India" could, in the eyes of the beleaguered generals, appear to offer the ultimate solution.

For India, if only because more of its cities lie within striking distance of the Pakistan air force, a war could mean incalculable damage. But even responsible opinion in India is already arguing that a war would be cheaper than the cost of maintaining the refugees, who now number almost 10 million. The cost of keeping them alive and in minimal shelters has already brought chaos to India's five-year plan. Priorities are being reallocated; industrial production and exports have fallen, while the prices of essential commodities have risen by 15%, touching off protest demonstrations.

Indira Gandhi is under pressure "to do something". The treaty with the Soviet Union gave her respite, but the people's patience is again wearing thin. She was not exaggerating when she said last week that India would be unable to maintain the refugees much longer. For her, too, war may appear to offer the only solution to the refugee problem, and the only way for her to survive.

It is impossible to disagree with Mrs Gandhi that the "international community" must accept much of the blame for the refugee crisis. The entire world is guilty of parsimoniousness. But three are culpable beyond that. The Soviet Union has been pursuing its own ends, although Moscow did dissuade New Delhi from an over-precipitate recognition of Bangla Desh and is trying to revive its role of honest broker. China, after giving vociferous and misplaced support to Yahya Khan, has eloquently muted its line and may even return to a policy of sanity. Both Moscow and Peking, however, still stand committed to some degree of involvement should war break out. The US continues to give Yahya Khan both hidden and public encouragement, facilitating the junta's reign of terror in the East. A return to sanity in Washington's policies could lessen the threat of war. But the Americans, as well as cutting off assistance, must also demand that Islamabad honour the verdict of the electorate in last December's general election -- the only basis on which the refugees can return to their homeland.